Outlook
Outlook
At the time of writing, ongoing collective bargaining negotiations – and those scheduled for fall 2023 – have not yet been concluded. It is not possible to rule out more extensive strike action in 2023.
Future development of DB Group
- Performance development in rail transport influenced by performance quality and strikes somewhat weaker than previously expected.
- Punctuality and customer satisfaction will not develop as much as previously expected.
- Expectations for revenue development as a result of freight rate development at DB Schenker adjusted.
- Implementation of the Strong Rail strategy driven further forward.
- Capital expenditure activity continues to grow.
Top targets for strong rail
Anticipated development | 2022 | 2023 (Mar forecast) | 2023 (Jul forecast) |
Passengers (rail) long-distance transport (million) | 132.0 | >155 | >150 |
Passengers (rail) local transport (million) | 1,605 | ~ 1,900 | >1,750 |
Volume sold rail freight transport (Germany) (billion tkm) | 59.6 | ~ 62 | >60 |
Train kilometers on track infrastructure (Germany)(million train-path km) | 1,133 | >1,130 | >1,130 |
Customer satisfaction DB Long-Distance (SI) | 74.8 | ~ 77 | 77 |
Customer satisfaction DB Regional (rail) | 70.1 | ~ 70 | ~ 68 |
Customer satisfaction DB Cargo 1) (SI) | 67 | ~ 61 | 64 |
Punctuality DB Long-Distance (%) | 65.2 | >70 | ~ 70 |
Punctuality DB Regional (rail) (%) | 91.8 | >92 | >92 |
Punctuality DB Cargo (Germany) (%) | 66.1 | >67 | >67 |
Share of renewable energies in the DB traction current mix in Germany (%) | 65.2 | 67 | 67 |
Employee satisfaction 2) (SI) | 3.9 | ‒ | ‒ |
ROCE (%) | 2.8 | ~ ‒2 | ~ ‒2 |
Debt coverage (%) | 13.1 | ~ 6 | ~ 6 |
1) Survey conducted annually in spring.
2) Survey conducted every two years.
Based on previous development and updated estimates, we have adjusted our expectations for development in the 2023 financial year:
- As a result of the challenging operating situation and the strike effects from the first half of 2023, we expect negative effects, particularly on the development of rail passenger transport, compared with our expectations from March 2023.
- Performance development in rail transport is expected to be somewhat weaker than previously thought due to performance quality and strikes in the first half of 2023.
- In addition, we expect punctuality development at DB Long-Distance to be somewhat weaker than previously thought due to the development in the first half of 2023.